Hey all,
Where does the time go? Octobers here, acorns are everywhere, leaves are changing color, and falling... everyones winterizing sprinklers, raking leaves, and generally getting ready for winter.
With a better than normal summer behind us... let's get ready for my favorite two months of the year (Nov./Dec.). More on the reasons why next month.
I have posted below a report from the National Association of Realtors web site regarding the housing market outlook for the next two years... in short, they're forecasting a market recovery in 2008. Back-to-the-historical norm in 2009. I just saved you about three paragraphs of reading time... sorry to have spoiled the ending.
I hope the pro's are right, because they've under forecast the woes for the past two years... hopefully they've underforecast the upturn as well.
Don't forget to hit the link above to view my listings... There are several homes for sale that are really great, with great owners that could use our help finding a buyer in this haystack of a market.
Rates are great with the recent fed slash, and there are a million homes to pick from, so if you're even thinking about buying, and are at all concerned about prices increasing, and take any stock in the NAR report below... you need to call me today to find a home, and beat the rush :0).
Personally...
Kelly & I are well... She started playing hockey again this season. Broken ankle is healed up nicely, and just a little pain & stiffness after a good skate.
Jessy has started heavily into her masters program at Western, and is working in a clinic. She has several patients that she is getting to know, and really enjoys the new phase of her education.
Dave, Lauren & Isabella are great, and the latest word is they have decided to get out of the military. If that holds... Lauren is expected to move home around May '08 with Bella, and Dave will follow around the end of July or early August. I appreciate his desire and ability to serve our country the way he has for the last 6 years, but I'm anxious to have them all home again soon.
They plan on living with us until he lands a job and gets himself acclimated to Michigan again. Not sure where we'll stash all the stuff, but we'll figure it out. Jessy already has announced that she's moving home as well... can't have Bella around without her favorite aunt near by. I knew we should have installed a shower in the basement when we did the bathroom :0).
Golf season is over, and yours truly with his steady as ever partner Ed Pennington took first place this year in the league... I just hope Ed isn't too tired from carrying me all year. (gratuitous trophy photo below).
The last couple weeks, I've tried my hand at drag racing with the motorcycle... Kellys cousin Jeff took me out to the drag strip to show me the ropes... It's a really fun time, but I'm finding out that there's a lot more involved than just grabbing the throttle and going fast. So far, nothing has broken, and Jessy thinks we're going through our mid life crisis :0)...
I hope you all are well... as always, I appreciate any referrals you bring my way. I treat your family and friends as my family and friends (maybe even better :0))
See you next month.
Dave
248-321-0151
Monday, October 1, 2007
NAR's forecast for the next two years...
Getting Back on Trackby Lawrence Yun, Vice President, NAR Research
U.S. Economic Outlook(300k PDF)Glimmers of hope late this year.
The Forecast: Charts
Mortgage rates to remain well below 8 percent.The summer has been tough – historically high temperatures in many parts of the country, Midwest floods, and almost everywhere major airline flight delays. Housing didn’t have such a great summer either, with home sales and price appreciation still waiting to recover. The subprime mortgage mess didn’t help either. So everyone wants to know: now that the summer is over, when can we expect the housing sector to get back to normal? There’s actually a sequence of events we should look for that need to happen before housing is back on track, and as each of these occurs, the closer the housing recovery will be. Let’s take a look at them. Mortgage Rates Will Stablize FavorablyDespite the headline news coverage of turmoil in the mortgage market, mortgage rates have actually been falling for borrowers who take out prime conforming loans. Because these borrowers account for the majority of home buyers, affordability conditions for most buyers have improved. FHA loans – the traditional financing vehicle for low-and-moderate income households – have also begun to build market interest and momentum. FHA loans offer very attractive rates nearly comparable to those of conforming loan rates and save homeowners a bundle – about $180,000 in lower interest payments over a 30-year loan cycle compared to high-interest rate subprime loans. A near-certain legislative change that will allow higher FHA loan limits in high cost areas will further free up the mortgage market to offer safer alternative products (i.e., FHA loans) and away from subprime loans. It is important to note, though, that subprime loans may make sense for some home buyers such as young couples with large income potential but little downpayment. But the subprime market share at most should be no more than 5% rather than the 20% market share of recent years.While mortgage rates look good for conforming and FHA loan clients, the same is not true for jumbo loan borrowers. Without the backing of a guarantee by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, bond investors are shying away from jumbo loans. As a result, interest rates on these large loans have increased and will significantly hold back home sales in the high cost housing areas like California. The whiplash will be short-term, however. After sorting through the numbers, bond investors will likely conclude that jumbos are quite safe – even without the government guarantees. A million dollar borrower generally has solid credit and pays bills on time. Any temporary legislative change in raising the loan limit well above the current $417,000 or in permitting the GSEs to purchase jumbos loans to include in their portfolios will mitigate the crisis. (The median prices will artificially trend lower during the period of jumbo loan crisis just due to fewer higher priced home sale transactions). Pent-Up Demand Will be UnleashedConsider this – four million net job additions in the past two years during the housing market slump. Yet, home sales have fallen. As home sales fell, people doubled and tripled up because apartment rents increased at their highest pace in five years. These people are waiting to buy a home. Then there are the approximately two million marriages that occur each year. Those newlyweds are waiting to buy a home. About four million babies are born each year – forcing some families to consider trading up from a smaller house or condo to a larger one. Homebuilders Take HeedThe inventory of both new and existing homes is at high levels. Builders have already cut back production and are encouraged to cut back even further. The market needs less inventory additions in a time of transition. Wall Street should and will punish any builders who add to inventory in the current market. Why build only to lose money on the home? With builders cutting back, inventory will fall. Some home owners of vacant homes will also consider the juicier rent growth and take their “empty” home off the market. In addition, many owners are in a no hurry to sell their home that they actually occupy (except perhaps for those in the few areas of the country that are losing jobs), and they may also choose to delay listing their home for sale or de-list it. Unleashing of that pent-up demand for home buying will also eat into inventory. Drawing Down the InventoryThe law of (lower) supply and (higher) demand will then firm up home prices. The media will be forced to report on the price gains. Many potential buyers, with solid financial wherewithal, will regain confidence. The wheels of housing turn faster and faster. The full unleashing of the pent-up demand could mean about two million additional homeowners. Such absorption into the marketplace will bring down the current existing-home inventory of four million units and the new home inventory of one million units to a total of three million homes (new and existing) available for sale. That level of inventory equates to a 5-6 months’ supply – generally considered a balanced market condition. Balanced Gains AheadAs the housing market recovers, potential home buyers (both first-timers and repeat purchasers) will gain more confidence in the housing sector. This, in turn, will drive more demand for homeownership, helping to keep inventory at or slightly below market balance and spur additional increases in home price appreciation. In sum, a closing of the subprime market does not directly mean equally lower home sales. FHA/VA and conforming government-backed loans will pick up a large chunk of the former subprime market. The jumbo loan concerns will be mitigated over time with better market knowledge, and will be assisted by changes in legislation permitting higher loan limits. Pent-up demand is strong. Inventory will move in the right direction. Builders are assisting by holding back production. A market recovery in 2008. Back-to-the-historical norm in 2009.
U.S. Economic Outlook(300k PDF)Glimmers of hope late this year.
The Forecast: Charts
Mortgage rates to remain well below 8 percent.The summer has been tough – historically high temperatures in many parts of the country, Midwest floods, and almost everywhere major airline flight delays. Housing didn’t have such a great summer either, with home sales and price appreciation still waiting to recover. The subprime mortgage mess didn’t help either. So everyone wants to know: now that the summer is over, when can we expect the housing sector to get back to normal? There’s actually a sequence of events we should look for that need to happen before housing is back on track, and as each of these occurs, the closer the housing recovery will be. Let’s take a look at them. Mortgage Rates Will Stablize FavorablyDespite the headline news coverage of turmoil in the mortgage market, mortgage rates have actually been falling for borrowers who take out prime conforming loans. Because these borrowers account for the majority of home buyers, affordability conditions for most buyers have improved. FHA loans – the traditional financing vehicle for low-and-moderate income households – have also begun to build market interest and momentum. FHA loans offer very attractive rates nearly comparable to those of conforming loan rates and save homeowners a bundle – about $180,000 in lower interest payments over a 30-year loan cycle compared to high-interest rate subprime loans. A near-certain legislative change that will allow higher FHA loan limits in high cost areas will further free up the mortgage market to offer safer alternative products (i.e., FHA loans) and away from subprime loans. It is important to note, though, that subprime loans may make sense for some home buyers such as young couples with large income potential but little downpayment. But the subprime market share at most should be no more than 5% rather than the 20% market share of recent years.While mortgage rates look good for conforming and FHA loan clients, the same is not true for jumbo loan borrowers. Without the backing of a guarantee by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, bond investors are shying away from jumbo loans. As a result, interest rates on these large loans have increased and will significantly hold back home sales in the high cost housing areas like California. The whiplash will be short-term, however. After sorting through the numbers, bond investors will likely conclude that jumbos are quite safe – even without the government guarantees. A million dollar borrower generally has solid credit and pays bills on time. Any temporary legislative change in raising the loan limit well above the current $417,000 or in permitting the GSEs to purchase jumbos loans to include in their portfolios will mitigate the crisis. (The median prices will artificially trend lower during the period of jumbo loan crisis just due to fewer higher priced home sale transactions). Pent-Up Demand Will be UnleashedConsider this – four million net job additions in the past two years during the housing market slump. Yet, home sales have fallen. As home sales fell, people doubled and tripled up because apartment rents increased at their highest pace in five years. These people are waiting to buy a home. Then there are the approximately two million marriages that occur each year. Those newlyweds are waiting to buy a home. About four million babies are born each year – forcing some families to consider trading up from a smaller house or condo to a larger one. Homebuilders Take HeedThe inventory of both new and existing homes is at high levels. Builders have already cut back production and are encouraged to cut back even further. The market needs less inventory additions in a time of transition. Wall Street should and will punish any builders who add to inventory in the current market. Why build only to lose money on the home? With builders cutting back, inventory will fall. Some home owners of vacant homes will also consider the juicier rent growth and take their “empty” home off the market. In addition, many owners are in a no hurry to sell their home that they actually occupy (except perhaps for those in the few areas of the country that are losing jobs), and they may also choose to delay listing their home for sale or de-list it. Unleashing of that pent-up demand for home buying will also eat into inventory. Drawing Down the InventoryThe law of (lower) supply and (higher) demand will then firm up home prices. The media will be forced to report on the price gains. Many potential buyers, with solid financial wherewithal, will regain confidence. The wheels of housing turn faster and faster. The full unleashing of the pent-up demand could mean about two million additional homeowners. Such absorption into the marketplace will bring down the current existing-home inventory of four million units and the new home inventory of one million units to a total of three million homes (new and existing) available for sale. That level of inventory equates to a 5-6 months’ supply – generally considered a balanced market condition. Balanced Gains AheadAs the housing market recovers, potential home buyers (both first-timers and repeat purchasers) will gain more confidence in the housing sector. This, in turn, will drive more demand for homeownership, helping to keep inventory at or slightly below market balance and spur additional increases in home price appreciation. In sum, a closing of the subprime market does not directly mean equally lower home sales. FHA/VA and conforming government-backed loans will pick up a large chunk of the former subprime market. The jumbo loan concerns will be mitigated over time with better market knowledge, and will be assisted by changes in legislation permitting higher loan limits. Pent-up demand is strong. Inventory will move in the right direction. Builders are assisting by holding back production. A market recovery in 2008. Back-to-the-historical norm in 2009.
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